Kabila co-opts the opposition to prolong a family dynasty

The highly contested elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are now over and Joseph Kabila Kabange handed over the presidency to Félix Antoine Tshilombo Tshisekedi on January 24.

Tshisekedi has been quickly recognised officially by the United States, Kenya and all the 16 Southern African Development Community member states to which the DRC belongs, among others.

Much more significantly, the internal and potentially divisive position adopted by the Catholic Church’s National Episcopal Conference of Congo has been undone because six of the eight Catholic bishops in Tshiskedi’s Kasai region have now accepted the electoral outcome, arguing that, however flawed, this is a step towards democracy and social progress for all.R

But these developments highlight the contradictions and lessons learnt from the past in at least three important aspects.

The first is that Africa is having to contend with the cohesion of elite, hereditary “republican” dynasties, which are expanding and consolidating. 
This was manifest in the temporary collaboration between the families of the late Laurent-Désiré Kabila and the late Étienne Tshisekedi wa Mulumba and now in the consensus reached between Joseph Kabila and Félix Tshisekedi.

This new-found relationship is unequally balanced, with Kabila controlling the instruments of the state, including an important 300 majority of the 500 legislators in the National Assembly, complemented by Tshisekedi’s inherited national mass support and legitimacy.

The test of the collaboration will lie in how they can reach mutual agreement and common positions on the fundamental problems confronting the state, such as governance, domestic and foreign policies, management of the political economy, security and even the selection of alliance partners.

But the ultimate challenge to the new-layered hereditary dynasty is that each partner is inheriting each other’s baggage as well as being expected to respond to the expectations of each other’s constituents.

One of the early issues is Kabila’s understood intentions to run for office again in 2023. This makes it is unlikely that Kabila and his allies, such as the losing presidential candidate, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, will go out of their way to strengthen Tshisekedi’s position and enable him to become independent of them.

Something symbolic about this fraught collaboration occurred during the inauguration. Kabila’s handlers had tightened the visible body armour on Tshisekedi to such extent that he couldn’t breathe properly and nearly collapsed; it had to be loosened to enable him to complete his inaugural speech.R

The second salutary lesson is the confirmation that, actually, elections do not matter for succession in the DRC. Consider the flawed elections in July 2006, in November 2011, the Catholic bishops conference-negotiated December 2016 extension (on the basis of which Kabila could prepare the country for elections) and the recent December 2018 polls.

In the midst of the most recent electoral crisis, the African Union, at its summit this month, issued a communiqué requesting the DRC to delay announcing the result until the AU could deploy a special intervention and conflict resolution team from its headquarters in Addis Ababa, a request that was simply ignored.

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By Martin R. Rupiya

« Du Mali à la Côte d’Ivoire, le pari fou de l’impunité pour construire la paix »

Tony Chafer: This thought-provoking article suggests that we need to rethink fundamentally our approach to reconciliation and post-conflict reconstruction in Africa.

Le rapport du groupe d’experts de l’ONU sur la situation sécuritaire au Mali et les violations de l’accord de paix d’Alger, rendu public jeudi 30 août, fait grand bruit. Les personnes et les groupes armés mis en cause ont commencé à protester de leur innocence. Le gouvernement et les forces armées maliennes, également pointés du doigt, réagiront aussi pour dénoncer les passages qui les desservent.

Le principal message du rapport est que plusieurs acteurs du processus de paix sont impliqués dans des attaques terroristes et/ou d’autres crimes allant du trafic de drogue à celui des armes et des êtres humains. Bref, les experts nous apprennent que beaucoup, parmi les acteurs de la paix qui étaient auparavant les acteurs de la guerre, ne sont pas des gentils. Ce sont même peut-être de vrais méchants capables de soutenir des attaques terroristes.

Ce rapport est le résultat d’un travail de recherche sérieux et difficile dans le contexte particulier du Mali. Comme il l’est en République démocratique du Congo (RDC), où le meurtre atroce de deux experts de l’ONU reste dans toutes les têtes. Le principal apport de ces travaux est de documenter au moins une partie des violations des accords de paix et des crimes divers commis dans le cadre des conflits et de permettre parfois des avancées politiques à la suite de la menace ou de l’application effective de sanctions ciblées.

Dans de rares cas, ces travaux contribuent à la mise en accusation, par la justice locale ou internationale, de quelques-uns des principaux responsables de crimes de guerre, de crimes contre l’humanité ou d’autres crimes graves. Mais entre la mise en lumière de faits et de responsabilités personnelles et une contribution effective à la paix ou à l’amélioration durable de la sécurité, il y a le petit jeu diplomatique entre grandes et moyennes puissances au sein du Conseil de sécurité, nourri par des calculs qui n’ont parfois qu’un rapport ténu avec la volonté de créer les conditions d’une paix durable.

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Originally published on Le Monde